TSLA — Swing Analysis

EMA Stack

EMA 9 $388.31

EMA 34 $406.49

EMA 50 $416.32

VWAP $423.94

MACD (12, 26, 9)

MACD -9.8899

Signal -8.0506

Histogram -1.8393

Crossover BEARISH

RSI (14)

RSI 30.34

Zone Neutral

03070100

Stoch %K / %D 12.57 / 27.14

Stoch Zone Oversold

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

Upper Band $420.29

Mid Band (SMA20) $398.33

Lower Band $376.36

BB Width 43.92

Lower%B: -25.9%Upper

Swing Structure

Resistance (Swing Highs)

$436.35 $420.34 $416.38

Support (Swing Lows)

$417.44 $387.53 $381.4

ATR(14) 13.38

Volume Ratio 1.06x avg

Fibonacci Retracement — $364.4601135253906 → $498.8299865722656

LEVEL	PRICE
0.0%	$498.83
23.6%	$467.12
38.2%	$447.5
50.0%	$431.65
61.8%	$415.79
78.6%	$393.22
100.0%	$364.46	◀ PRICE

Last 5 Candles

Date	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume
2026-03-16	$396.22	$403.73	$394.42	$395.56	58,068,300
2026-03-17	$395.69	$400.12	$393.00	$399.27	46,890,500
2026-03-18	$399.00	$403.07	$392.31	$392.78	50,853,100
2026-03-19	$387.27	$387.27	$378.73	$380.30	67,078,300
2026-03-20	$379.39	$379.89	$364.46	$364.99	63,333,472

▸ AI Analysis — OLLAMA / qwen3-coder-next:cloud

1. Trend Bias

Bearish — Price is below all key EMAs (9, 34, 50) and VWAP. MACD confirms bearish momentum with a bearish crossover and negative histogram. Price broke below swing low at $387.53 and closed near session low, indicating strong selling pressure.

2. Key Levels

Resistance: $387.53 (recent swing low → now potential resistance), $393.22 (61.8% Fib), $416.38 (swing high), $420.34 (BB upper + prior swing high)
Support: $381.40 (swing low), $376.36 (BB lower), $364.46 (Fib 100% + recent low)
Critical: $381.40 — break below confirms extended downside.

3. EMA Stack

Bearish stack: Price < EMA9 (388.31) < EMA34 (406.49) < EMA50 (416.32) < VWAP (423.94). Tightening spread suggests accelerating downside.

4. Momentum

MACD: Bearish crossover (MACD < Signal), histogram expanding negatively → bearish acceleration.
RSI(14): 30.34 — neutral-to-bearish, approaching oversold but not yet extreme.
Stochastic: %K (12.57) < %D (27.14) in oversold zone — potential near-term bounce, but no bullish divergence yet.

5. Bollinger Bands

Price at $364.99, near lower band ($376.36) and BB %B = -25.9% → deep oversold expansion. BB width (43.92) widening — volatility increasing, typical in strong trends.

6. Volume

Volume ratio = 1.06x average, with last two days showing rising volume on down candles (esp. Mar 19–20). High volume on bearish close confirms institutional selling.

7. Trade Setup

Bias: Short only (bearish confluence).
Entry: Wait for retest of $381.40–$387.53 zone (swing high/resistance), ideally with bearish candle close below $381.40.
Stop Loss: $381.40 + 1×ATR = $381.40 + $13.38 = $394.78
Targets:
1R (1×ATR): $381.40 – $13.38 = $368.02
2R (2×ATR): $381.40 – 2×$13.38 = $354.64
Confirmation Signals:
Bearish pin bar or engulfing candle at resistance zone
RSI < 40 + MACD histogram expanding downward
Volume confirmation on breakdown below $381.40

8. Fibonacci Levels

61.8% Fib ($415.79) aligns with EMA50 ($416.32) and prior swing high — strong resistance.
78.6% Fib ($393.22) aligns with EMA9 ($388.31) and current resistance zone — confluence for short entry.
100% Fib ($364.46) = recent low — key target zone.

9. Risk Rating

High — Bearish trend confirmed, but oversold conditions (Stochastic, BB %B) may trigger short-term bounce. Trade requires strict stop and patience for confluence. Risk/reward >1:2 achievable if entry zone holds. Avoid chasing; wait for pullback confirmation.

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Educational Purposes Only — Not Financial or Professional Advice This report is generated automatically using publicly available market data and AI-assisted analysis. It is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. Nothing on this page constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other professional advice of any kind. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves significant risk of loss. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.